Water Crux MerlinTier 1
at Store Championship
decks
1
(4.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-2-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.9%
avg ELO +2.2 per match
expected value
51.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1006
· median 1006
· range 1006–1006
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1001
Q1 1140
Q3 1349
1479
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 18.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
| Fire Exia | 13.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +16.9 |
| Slimes | 13.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.6% | -11.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.9% | -8.2 |
| Wind Cats | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 4.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Silvie | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Tamer | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Tamer | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Merlin decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
